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AUGUST 11, 2026 |
The dollar just hit a 7-week low, tariff refunds passed $100B, and ICE had its biggest month yet.
Three moves this week that hit what you send home, your margins, and your crew's paperwork.
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IN THIS EDITION
01 📈 GROWTH: The dollar's weak week is your window to send money home smarter. 02 💼 BUSINESS: Tariff refunds hit $100B. Yours might still be stuck. 03 🌐 GLOBAL: ICE just had its biggest arrest month yet. 04 🔧 TOOLS: Four tools, starting with PTX Exchange.
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SEVEN-WEEK LOW
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The dollar just hit a seven-week low. If you send money home, this week changes your math. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Friday after a much weaker July jobs report, hitting its lowest level in seven weeks, per Reuters. The Mexican peso and the Brazilian real each gained about 0.5% against the dollar that same session, part of a sixth straight week of gains for Latin American currencies as a group. The trigger: US payrolls fell by 23,000 in July instead of adding the roughly 80,000 economists expected. That cooled bets on a September Fed rate hike. Traders now price a 44% chance of a hike next month, down from 55% right before the jobs data, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Here's why the mechanics matter if you support family back home: as of today, $1 buys about R$5.11 or MX$17.13, both a touch lower than a week ago. A weaker dollar means the same paycheck converts to less local currency, right as fees and spreads quietly eat into whatever's left. That spread is exactly where providers differ. Some quote a “no-fee” transfer that's actually padded by a bad exchange rate; others show you the real rate before you confirm.
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-0.4%
US Dollar Index, 7-week low
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R$5.11 / MX$17.13
Today's USD rate (Aug 11)
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44%
Odds of a Sept. Fed hike, down from 55%
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Before you send money home this week, check the live rate against the mid-market rate on XE or Google, not just the fee the provider advertises. The dollar is already down this week; that's not the week to also lose 2-3% to a hidden spread.
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MILESTONE, NOT RELIEF
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Tariff refunds just hit $100 billion. If you're a small importer, you're still at the back of the line. A court filing reviewed by Reuters and confirmed by multiple outlets shows the federal government had refunded roughly $100 billion in “Liberation Day”-era IEEPA tariffs by the end of July 2026, tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unlawful back in February. The money is flowing overwhelmingly to the largest importers first. Multinational retailers and manufacturers with dedicated trade-compliance teams and outside counsel are getting paid while smaller importers wait, often without knowing where their claim sits in line. This continues a pattern we flagged in July: as of July 10, roughly $80 billion of a $166 billion pool was still unpaid, and thousands of already-approved refunds were stuck on missing or incorrect banking information on file with Customs and Border Protection. Congress hasn't let it go either. A bill introduced this month with 26 cosponsors calls for refunding IEEPA tariff revenue “with interest,” a sign lawmakers think the current pace isn't good enough.
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$100B
Refunded through end of July
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26
Cosponsors on the refund-with-interest bill
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Feb 2026
When SCOTUS ruled these tariffs unlawful
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Don't assume “approved” means “paid,” and don't assume you're near the front of the line. Log into the ACE portal this week, confirm your refund status and your banking details on file, and if you've been waiting since spring, get help pushing the claim instead of waiting for it to surface on its own.
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RECORD MONTH, NEW TACTICS
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ICE just had its biggest arrest month of the administration. Your I-9 file is what protects you. ICE made roughly 51,000 arrests in July 2026, up from about 43,000 in June: the highest monthly total of the administration, according to arrest data reported August 11 by Indiana Public Media. The jump comes from new tactics, not just more of the same. Daily airport operations are targeting travelers with expired visas (20 to 40 arrests a day at some airports), and multi-state highway checkpoints are running too: a single late-July sweep across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio produced 51 detentions.
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Airport operations: 20 to 40 arrests a day targeting expired-visa travelers. |
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Highway checkpoints across IL, IN, IA and OH produced 51 detentions in one late-July sweep. |
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Less than a third of current detainees have any criminal conviction, per the Migration Policy Institute; about 40% face only non-criminal violations. |
None of this changes what protects your business: ICE reclassified a long list of I-9 paperwork errors as substantive violations earlier this year, with fines running $288 to $2,861 per form and no cure period.
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51K
ICE arrests, July 2026
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43K
ICE arrests, June 2026
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40%
Detainees facing only non-criminal violations
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THE BOTTOM LINE
Pull every I-9 you hold today, not after a visit. List every employee whose work authorization depends on a document, write down the exact expiration date on the card, and fix what you find now. A paperwork error you catch costs nothing; the same error an auditor catches costs up to $2,861 per form.
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FOUR TOOLS, NEVER REPEATED
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Real pricing, real URLs, and a human on the other end when you need one.
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💵
PTX Exchange
Flat 1.6% fee · free app
Send money home in Portuguese, Spanish or English, with a real person on the other end if something goes wrong. Real-time rate, FinCEN-registered MSB.
ptxexchange.com/newsletter
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✅
E-Verify
Free · federal program
Confirm work eligibility electronically before day one, straight from DHS. It won't stop an audit, but a clean E-Verify record is the fastest way to show good faith if ICE asks.
e-verify.gov
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💵
Gusto
From $49/mo + $6/employee
Payroll, new-hire paperwork and W-2s in one place, built for a business about to add its first crew member in months.
gusto.com/pricing
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🔍
USITC Tariff Database (HTS Search)
Free · federal database
Look up the exact duty rate for anything you import, straight from the source Customs itself uses. Useful next time a supplier blames a tariff for a price hike.
hts.usitc.gov
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QUICK READS THIS WEEK
01 The BLS's full July 2026 Employment Situation report, sector by sector. › 02 U.S. News (Reuters wire): the $100 billion tariff-refund milestone, and who's getting paid first. › 03 Indiana Public Media on ICE's record July arrest tactics. › 04 Business Recorder (Reuters wire) on Latin American currencies rallying against the dollar. ›
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Don't take our word for it. Verify it yourself.
Paste any of these into ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini with web search on. If we got something wrong, we want you to find it.
STORY 01
“What happened to the US Dollar Index and to Latin American currencies (Mexican peso, Brazilian real) around August 7-10, 2026, and why? What are current market odds of a September 2026 Fed rate hike?” STORY 02
“How much in IEEPA tariff refunds had the U.S. government paid out by the end of July 2026 according to court filings, and are small businesses experiencing more difficulty receiving refunds than larger importers?” STORY 03
“How many ICE arrests occurred in July 2026 compared with June 2026, and what new enforcement tactics were reported, such as airport operations or highway checkpoints?”
See every source behind this edition ›
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